Good news for Republican Dave McSweeney's camp this week . . .
Evan-Novak Political Report reports the 8th Congressional District is now leaning toward a Republican pick up because this time the AFL-CIO will not be endorsing incumbent Melissa Bean. They are unhappy with her vote in favor of the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
With the absence of a strong Democratic organization in the 10th, this leaves Bean without the muscle needed to get back to D.C.
McSweeney continues to plow ahead, with an expected visit from Vice President Dick Cheney at a $250/plate luncheon next Friday.
Evans-Novak Political Report for 6/14
Illinois-8: The decision by a unified group of Change-to-Win and AFL-CIO unions not to endorse Rep. Melissa Bean (D) represents the culmination of a year's work by union organizers to preserve a united front as they punish the handful of House Democrats who voted in favor of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). As unions provided much of the muscle that helped Bean oust Rep. Phil Crane (R) from this heavily Republican district in 2004, she is now in a very difficult position against Dave McSweeney (R), a wealthy conservative. The unions will not back McSweeney, but they may back an third-party pro-union candidate, Bill Scheurer, which would be devastating for Bean.
This looks more and more like the Republicans' best pick-up opportunity for the fall -- and there are not many to begin with. Although the exact impact of the union un-endorsement is not yet clear, we expect it to turn the tide against Bean. It is worth mentioning, though, that some top Republicans remain skeptical. Leaning Republican Takeover.