by Mark Rhoads
So far, Barack Obama has done poorly in big states Democrats must win to total an electoral vote majority in November. Half of the population of American and half of all the electoral votes are found in just the eleven most populous states. Obama has won so far just two of the most populous states--Illinois and Georgia--and leads in a third, North Carolina. Hillary Clinton has won eight of the most populous states--California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and New Jersey. Ohio carried for George Bush in 2000 and 2004.
In both Florida and Ohio, where older voters are a big factor, McCain's tougher fall opponent would be Hillary Clinton and not Barack Obama. As John Kerry found out in 2004, Ohio will be the most critical state that Democrats must move from the Republican column to the Democratic column to gain an electoral majority. Democrats ran a near-perfect campaign in Ohio in 2004 and still lost by more than 100,000 votes because Karl Rove changed the previous normal rules and boosted voter registration in the super-suburbs. Obama's campaign has also been good at registering new voters. From the standpoint of the Electoral College, Barack Obama stands less of a chance than Hillary Clinton of winning Ohio in the fall.
