WASHINGTON DC - While Republicans just won the Senate majority last month, Politico wonders if the GOP can keep it. The DC-based publication analyzed the U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2016.
On Illinois U.S. Senator Mark Kirk, it writes:
The consensus: Kirk is almost assuredly running for reelection. He’s fundraising and keeping an active schedule consistent with someone who’s gearing up for a hard-fought reelection campaign. Although he suffered a stroke nearly three years ago, he’s silencing critics who initially thought he should step aside and focus on his recovery, saying repeatedly that he’s in the race for good.
But the politics are a different story. Kirk has few advantages in a state that’s inhospitable to Republicans, especially in presidential years. And Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth can offset most of them — from her military service to her own perseverance to overcome combat wounds. If she gets in the race, Kirk would immediately start as an underdog and would have to rely on his retail skills and appeal in the Cook County suburbs to claw his way into contention. Duckworth would be formidable but no shoo-in. Critics say she’s nakedly ambitious and an uneven campaigner. But she’s learned a lot since her 2012 victory over firebrand conservative Joe Walsh and may be ready to make the leap. The big question: Will she get in? Duckworth gave birth to a daughter last month and may not be excited about giving up her now-safe House seat and diving into a tense statewide campaign.
— Kirk’s likely to face nominal opposition in a GOP primary, but few — other than perhaps colorful former GOP Rep. Joe Walsh, who’s given indications he’s considering a bid — would likely give him a scare. The GOP knows Kirk is the best they’ve got in the blue-tinted state. He’s staked out a few moderate positions — from his support for gay marriage to the Manchin-Toomey gun-background-check legislation – but has largely hewed to conservative fiscal principles, even when they might run to the right of the Illinois electorate.
Other potential candidates: If Duckworth opts out, the camera lens will pan to Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who’s considered a deft campaigner with the skills to compete statewide. But she’s considered likely to pass up the chance. Democrats’ bench also includes state Sen. Kwame Raoul, Rep. Cheri Bustos, Rep. Bill Foster, Treasurer-elect Mike Frerichs and Gov. Pat Quinn’s 2010 primary rival, Dan Hynes.
Wildcard: The Rauner machine. Republican Bruce Rauner poured tens of millions of dollars into his successful gubernatorial bid, and he helped rebuild the state party along the way. Whether that results in a long-term, potent turnout operation in future cycles could have a lot to do with whether Kirk is competitive in 2016. Kirk and Rauner already have a strong relationship — many of the staffers now with Rauner came from Kirk’s orbit. Downstate counties where Rauner excelled will be critical if Kirk’s going to have a shot. So will the suburbs that ring Chicago.
More HERE
