Almost no one expected Donald Trump to win the 2016 presidential election, but his campaign’s strategy to focus on disaffected Midwest voters long abandoned by the Democratic Party leadership paid off in a big way. A majority of voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and, perhaps most surprisingly, Wisconsin, all pulled the lever in favor of Trump.
To win a second term, Trump is going to need a similar level of success in the Midwest, and it looks as though Minnesota, which has long been thought of as an iron-clad Democratic stronghold, could be a big part of his 2020 strategy — and for good reason.
Without Minnesota, the Democratic presidential candidate — regardless of who wins the primary race — would face a nearly insurmountable uphill battle. For example, even if the Democratic challenger were to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania to his or her side, it still wouldn’t be enough to win if Trump were to hold every other state he captured in 2020 and wins in Minnesota. Winning Minnesota would also mean that Trump could lose Florida and Arizona — two states he won in 2016 — and still end up with more than the required 270 electoral votes.
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