It’s become fashionable for doomsday prophets to predict that “overpopulation” will lead to mass starvation and environmental catastrophe. Now, however, with humanity facing a global crash in birthrates, many experts are rightly changing their tune.
Contrary to the Malthusian predictions, the population boom of the 20th century was far from a “population bomb.”It did not lead to dystopian deprivation, but instead produced abounding prosperity and drastic declines in global hunger. As it turns out, Julian Simon’s provocative thesis was correct: Humans are the “ultimate resource.”
Whereas declining birthrates were once seen as a sign of a nation’s “progress,” developed countries now view them through a lens of existential crisis, likely to halt economic transformation and pave the way for increased human suffering and civilizational sclerosis. In places like China, Russia, Italy, and Japan, political leaders have become less concerned about “hot and crowded” streets than simply filling their markets and funding their government programs. With some unfortunate exceptions, Paul Ehrlich’s dark fantasies of mass sterilization have largely been replaced with child tax credits and national procreation days.
When it comes to the environmental implications, however, many are still holding fast to the scarcity-mindedness of decades past.
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