WASHINGTON – Congressman Bob Dold (IL-10) is facing Democrat Brad Schneider in the November General Election, creating a Dold-Schneider nose-to-nose for the third time in a row.
First Dold beat Democrat Dan Seals in 2010, then Schneider beat Dold in 2012. Dold won back the seat from Schneider in 2014, and now Schneider wants in back in 2016.
The 10th CD – the state's most liberal district currently represented by a Republican – was represented by Mark Kirk before he was elected U.S. Senator in 2010 – the year Dold was first elected to succeed him. With a median income of $65,864 the district is 78.6% White, 8.5% Black, 9.6% Asian, 20.6% Hispanic, 0.1% Native American, 4.4% other.
The District leans Democrat with a +8, although Dold won in 2014 with 50 percent of the vote.
Unfortunately for Schneider, his history with internal polling doesn’t back up the underlying assumption that he’s even ahead in the first place. Just weeks before he lost to Dold by 3.2% in the 2014 general election, Schneider released a poll showing him “ahead” by 8 points. That’s an 11 point swing against Schneider.
The NRCC’s own polling shows Dold leading Schneider by 7 points.
"Like a timeshare telemarketer that just won't lose your number, Brad Schneider is back selling dreams again today with another miraculous poll showing he's "winning" in a statistical tie with Bob Dold," NRCC Spokesman Zach Hunter said in a statement.
"Tragically, it looks like his team forgot to tell him that this make-believe poll demonstrates that Brad’s supposed "lead" is now cut in half over the last fake poll he pitched just a month ago.”
The race is on pace to be Congress' most expensive nationwide in 2016.
When Dold ousted Schneider in a narrow race in 2014, nearly $18 million was spent by both the two campaigns and outside groups supporting them, according to reports compiled by the FEC and Open Secrets.