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HomeIllinois PoliticsIllinois not necessarily in the bag for Clinton

Illinois not necessarily in the bag for Clinton



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CHICAGO – Illinois, normally a very blue, Democrat-controlled state, is surprisingly not a sure thing for Democrat presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton, according to the nationally-renowned polling center Real Clear Politics

Citing two recent polls of Illinois voters, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 13 points in one and by six points in another. That puts Illinois in Real Clear Politics' "Leans Hillary" column – a real surprise since neither Clinton nor Trump have invested much into the state and focused more on surrounding "battleground" states like Wisconsin, Michigan,Iowa and Ohio. Neighboring states of Missouri and Indiana are considered "Leans Trump" states.

Insiders tell Illinois Review that current polling shows the downstate third of Illinois heavily in favor of Trump, the central third evenly balanced between Clinton and Trump, and the top, most populated portion of the state going for Clinton. State campaigns are hoping Trump will have coattails in the southern third of the state that could put conservative Downstate Democrats in play.

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Two Emerson College polls in the Midwest show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 7 points in Wisconsin (45% to 38%) and by 6 in Illinois (45% to 39%). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is winning 11% in Wisconsin, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein is capturing 2%, with 4% of Badger State voters still undecided. In Illinois, 6% of those surveyed plan to vote for Johnson, 3% say they support Stein, and 7% are undecided. The margin of error for both surveys was +/-3.6%.

In the Emerson Poll, Trump holds a commanding lead over Clinton (49% to 27%) with Independents, but 42% of the Kasich vote is going to Clinton while Trump receives 33%.

In the Illinois U.S. Senate race, Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth has a 2-point lead over GOP incumbent Mark Kirk, 41% to 39%. Kirk has an image problem in the state, with only 26% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 46% unfavorable (-20).  Forty percent (40%) view Duckworth unfavorably, and 37% view her favorably.


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  1. Clinton may win in Chicago, Rockford, Aurora and Elgin, but that will be determined only if there is a low GOP voter turn-out.
    In Aurora, for example, there are more registered GOP voters than Democrats.
    Living as I do in the transition area between “suburban” and “rural,” and spending much time in the rural areas west of here, Trump will get the bigger vote.
    To make a broad statement that “the northern third of Illinois goes for Clinton” is too broad a statement.

  2. Ask me a month or two ago and I would have said HRC would be in double digits at this point. Kirks only 2 points behind Duckworth. Would be interesting to see some numbers for Bustos and Foster. This could be a Trump effect in a way Pat Brady wasn’t expecting.

  3. I agree with the other Phil. Instead of using polls, to predict elections, I use past election results. Each poll usually considers 500-700 people. At least 3 million people will vote in Illinois. In the last six presidential elections, the Democrats won Illinois. In 2014, Sen. Durbin won re-election. The majority of Illinois’ congressmen, state senators, and state representatives are Democrats. Our attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer are Democrats.
    I hope that Trump will win about 2/3 of the vote, in Illinois, but I think that Clinton will win 56%, in IL.

  4. That’s because of all of the noncitizen voters. Yes, it’s happening, lying scumbag Democrats: lawnewz.com/high-profile/washington-mall-shooting-suspect-may-have-illegally-voted-in-presidential-primary/
    It’s funny, now they’re claiming that he’s a citizen. Oh, my rear end. No, he’s not but he’s voting here and now they’re going to make up whatever lie that they have to to prevent voter rolls from ever possibly being scrubbed.

  5. I wonder if Durbin will come out for Kirk. After all, didn’t Kirk do the same for Durbin last time? Maybe some reporter should ask Dick. (Just kidding…only Republicans are this stupid. Like Nancy or Harry would ever say they can’t cast a vote for Hillary).But it would be a good question for Dick.