By John F. Di Leo -
In the summer and fall of 2015, many Illinois Republicans called for the party to retire incumbent US Senator Mark Kirk in the primary. Despite some party pressure, but obviously not enough, he refused to sit out the election. He campaigned for re-nomination, which scared both candidates and money out of the primary, and he won the spring… losing the fall as everyone predicted.
Mark Kirk was elected narrowly in 2010, in a race that should have been a landslide even in Illinois. It was the best year for the Republican party in generations, and he was fortunate to have a general election opponent whom even the Chicago Tribune called “the mob’s banker.”
In office, Kirk suffered a stroke, severely limiting his campaigning ability… and several political choices as a Senator, particularly his support of carbon “cap and trade” regulation and belief in the “manmade climate change” hoax, utterly doomed his candidacy for re-election.
Mark Kirk had never been comfortable with the Republican base, and the feeling was mutual. His hostility to conservatives was kept somewhat in check as a Congressman but was unleashed, full-force, once he reached the Senate. The power of incumbency enabled him to coast to re-nomination in 2016, but his repulsion of the party’s base doomed him in November.
And it was predicted.
Second Verse, Same as the First
We see the same story being written again for 2018, this time in the Governor’s race.
Bruce Rauner and Mark Kirk have very different histories, of course; one a lifetime businessman, new to politics, and the other an old legislative aide and Congressman who rose to statewide office in the usual way.
But they also have incredible similarities. Both were always distrusted by the party’s base. Both gained statewide office as something of an internal compromise by conservatives – “he’s not one of us, but he may be the best we can get… he’ll still be better than a Democrat would be.” So the base may not have chosen them in the primaries, but accepted them in the generals, and pushed them over the line in their first Novembers.
But as we close in on three years of the Rauner experiment, we find ourselves in much the same position we were in at this time in 2015 with Mark Kirk.
Rauner has turned off so many core constituencies – through such fatal errors as signing a sanctuary state law, allowing transgender driver’s licenses, and taxpayer funding of abortion – that he has utterly lost the republican base.
As everyone knows, Illinois is a difficult state for a Republican. It’s not impossible, but it is hard, and getting harder every year, as the majority of the 95,000 or so who annually flee the state are Republicans.
This means that a Republican candidate for statewide office simply cannot turn off any major element of the GOP base, and Rauner has turned off several. He promised to be no more than a moderate on the issues on which he is wrong; contrary to his promises, he chose in 2017 to be downright radical on them.
The war chant of the rampaging RINO has always been “Where else can they go?” and that argument has often won the day, because in fact the patriot must usually admit that a modern Democrat would always be worse.
But Mark Kirk often made us question that argument, and Bruce Rauner in 2017 has made it his business to destroy it.
It is almost inconceivable that even a Democrat would dare statewide funding of abortion-on-demand, or turn the entire state into a sanctuary state. Chris Kennedy, in recent weeks, has even made some pointed centrist remarks on such key issues, to ensure that if he survives his party’s primary, he can run to the right of Rauner on issues of importance to the GOP base (Kennedy doesn't need to win us all, he just needs to splinter us).
Bruce Rauner cannot win the entire Republican base, and build on it with a majority of the middle and a decent subset of the left, as he did last time. He got into office with an outsider’s magic act that simply cannot be repeated, now that he has a record.
The luster is off the statue now, as “independent businessman” Bruce Rauner has become a politician… and not a particularly successful one at that:
His claim of being the stern money manager, holding out for systemic reforms before approving tax increases, collapses under the weight of his signature of the abortion bill and the sanctuary bill, because – as everyone knows – the half-million-plus illegal aliens in Illinois are a huge part of the state’s financial troubles… from the costs of crime, welfare, healthcare, and the competition in employment.
The single easiest way to plug our budgetary hole would be to eject the illegal aliens who aren’t allowed to be here anyway; inviting countless more to flood in, through sanctuary status, is fiscal (as well as cultural) suicide.
A governor who is concerned first and foremost about fiscal responsibility would have to be on the side of law enforcement here, not on the side of the sanctuary millstone that is fast sinking our state (along with so many others).
This issue can only become ever more obvious over the course of the year to come. Bruce Rauner cannot win re-election in November by competing only over the left and the middle, having ceded the right to two sad choices: either leaving our ballots blank in disgust, or voting for third parties in desperation.
The Republican party has only one choice, if it wants to retain the Executive Mansion in Springfield for the critical 2019-2022 term – the term in which the legislative remaps set the table for the 2020s:
We need to see beyond Rauner’s massive war-chest – since he has already rendered himself unelectable, his war-chest doesn’t matter – and look to November.
Rauner won the primary last time because the legitimate Republican candidates split between three choices – Dan Rutherford, Bill Brady, and Kirk Dillard. This time, the opposition must unite behind one person with impeccable party credentials and a voting record that shows consistency with the party platform… a county chairman, a state rep or a state senator, who can mount a credible campaign in the fall against whichever left-wing amateur the Democrats nominate.
Illinois Republicans have to learn from 2015, and do what we should have done then: every single GOP county committee should issue a resolution that We Will Not endorse Bruce Rauner for re-nomination, period.
We must treat this race as an open seat, one in which the extremist Bruce Rauner need not apply… and run one great, winnable Republican to lead our ticket in the fall.
Illinois Republicans have a choice to make:
Either we beat Bruce Rauner in the Primary, or we watch the Democrats beat us in the General.
Copyright 2017 john F. Di Leo
John F. Di Leo is a Chicagoland-based trade compliance lecturer, writer and actor. His columns are regularly found in Illinois Review. Permission is hereby granted to forward freely, provided it is uncut and the IR URL and byline are included.
All due respect John…you are wrong on several counts.
-Mark Kirk was elected narrowly in 2010, in a race that should have been a landslide even in Illinois.-
Yeah, how about the Governors race? How Did that go? Conservative Bill Brady lost to Pat Quinn of all people…because he wasn’t conservative enough? Kirk got both Conservative and Moderates to show up while Democrats did not turn out. And yes, Kirk did not help himself in the 2016 race, but then again it likely wouldn’t have been good any any Republican running for Senate.
-As everyone knows, Illinois is a difficult state for a Republican. It’s not impossible, but it is hard, and getting harder every year, as the majority of the 95,000 or so who annually flee the state are Republicans.-
So instead of expanding the base of voters, we should narrow it? You literally just said we are losing thousands of voters, so why would a candidate want to narrow the amount of voters they target?
-The single easiest way to plug our budgetary hole would be to eject the illegal aliens who aren’t allowed to be here anyway-
Literally not one shred of evidence to prove this. And Illinois can’t do that, because states can’t enforce immigration laws. It’s called Federalism.
-A governor who is concerned first and foremost about fiscal responsibility would have to be on the side of law enforcement here-
Again, he signed a bill codifying a federal court order, which would in fact be siding with the law, because again FEDERALISM.
-We need to see beyond Rauner’s massive war-chest – since he has already rendered himself unelectable, his war-chest doesn’t matter-
Yeah, because if Pritzker wins the Dem nomination a massive war chest won’t matter. That makes sense.
-Rauner won the primary last time because the legitimate Republican candidates split between three choices – Dan Rutherford, Bill Brady, and Kirk Dillard-
So the guy who lost the first race…they guy who faced a sexual harassment lawsuit, and the guy who was receiving backing from public employee unions, real Republican champions there.
– This time, the opposition must unite behind one person with impeccable party credentials and a voting record that shows consistency with the party platform… a county chairman, a state rep or a state senator, who can mount a credible campaign in the fall against whichever left-wing amateur the Democrats nominate.-
They are trying to nominate a political insider billionaire because they know they need him to beat Rauner, taking that away is foolish.
-Illinois Republicans have to learn from 2015, and do what we should have done then: every single GOP county committee should issue a resolution that We Will Not endorse Bruce Rauner for re-nomination, period.
Illinois Republicans should learn from 2016, when we picked up GA seats in a presidential year… With the help of Governor Rauner.
Illinois Republicans can’t learn from last week let alone 2015.
Bruce Rauner was a lifelong Democrat, you guys knew he was a lifelong Democrat, and you still gave him the keys to your party. Then you are shocked (shocked!!!) when his actions prove demtrimental towards your party and favorable towards the Democrat party.
The fix is in and you guys are fighting not only the last war but two, three, four wars past.
Leave the state to the Democrats. Illinois is a time waster.
180 more votes and Kirk Dillard would have won the 2010 primary and be on his second term now. Bill Brady ran the worst campaign for governor I have ever seen and his reward is to be the “Republican” leader of the Illinois Senate. But at long last, the abused wife known as Republican primary voters is starting to fight back. It’s going to a whole new legislature in 2019 when it comes to the Republican Party.
I see the surrender caucus is out in force, probably the same people who didn’t lift a finger in the 2010 and 2014 primaries. Pritzker is a terrible candidate who is already promising to double tax rates with a graduated income tax. We can beat Rauner like Trump beat Jeb Bush with a decent candidate. And we can beat Pritzker. But it will take effort, not the usual keyboard snarking. If Illinois is a waste of time, why do you bother posting?
The state is no better off, maybe even worse off, than if Quinn had been re-elected.
John F. Di Leo is delusional if he thinks there is ANY Republican that is capable and worth supporting…that could beat Bruce Rauner in a GOP Primary.
Pritzker will by all indications be our next Governor.
I saw somewhere that “Rauner CAN’T LOSE!
He has 70 million dollars!”
And how many millions of dollars does Pritzger have?
this could be the most expensive election money can buy.
It’s not surrender at all to acknowledge that a deadbeat state like this is not worth the time or effort when valuable resources can be used elsewhere.
If Kirk Dillard is your idea of a conservative then I shudder to think what you’d have in store for us this time around.
Wake up call… Joe Chavez is right for once. There is not a serious conservative in this state that would have a chance of winning. Even if they did they would get nothing changed since the legislature would not flip. Please join us in reality.
Disagree with nearly everything you wrote but especially the part implying that there is a dime’s worth of difference between Rauner and Pritzker had me laughing out loud. Thanks for stopping by, Diana.
grant noble, good points -saving Illinois will take all hands on deck
In response to StevieDAnderson
1. We held our nose in 2010 by 2016 Mark Kirk had a record that was LEFT of most Dems, simply making the problem bi-partisan. Kirk won the 2016 primary due to crossover vote – he lost to a real Dem in the general when the base said “NO!” Worse, than the under-votes, many stayed home. Had he not been there, Republicans could have picked up more House and Senate seats in Springfield.
2. You don’t expand the party by kicking the base out – unless you want us to create a new third party, without you.
3. Illegal aliens – we could cooperate with ICE, and allow law enforcement to hold someone long enough to find out if their finger prints match another name who is a wanted criminal. Say 24 or 48 hours max.
4. War-chest, in Allabama, the looser out-spent the winner (Moore) 50:1. Money isn’t everything.
John, Mark Kirk voted for Cap and Trade while in the House of Representin’ and a few months later toured Southern Illinois claiming to see the error of his ways and would never support it again. He was a disgusting liberal as a representative and everyone knew it. He had the help of many Republican prostitutes such as John Shimkus and Rodney “George Ryan staffer” Davis.
Donald Trump expanded the CONSERVATIVE base and you probably opposed that. He’s the only reason why the Illinois GOP picked up seats, even while Governor Rauner trashed him in favor of Hillary Clinton. I never voted for Mark Kirk because I’m a conservative and NOT an Illinois Republican. And I plan on NOT voting for Bruce Rauner again either. He’s virtually ruined the Illinois Republican Party, ironically.
Care to explain Kirk Dillard’s Obama endorsement ad? Dillard couldn’t even beat Bruce Rauner! Lol. He lost by what, 2%?
Senator Luther had $30 million. Lost by 10 points. Jed had how much? Marco? Ted? Bruce knows this. Bruce is freaking.
Love these comments. Someone does something good and there are no or few comments, reference the congressional delegation opposing HB40 story or that they all voted for pain capable… no comments. Yet any other story it is filled with the keyboard warriors who would rather burn the place down to feel good. Ya we hope rauner and every republican loses that will sure show em! My leg has a bruise I’m gonna cut it off so that never happens again!
Some people, namely those above me in this thread, are as entitled and snowflakey as the libs they complain about.
Standing by for angry snow flake offended responses in 3…2….
We need a candidate with positive name recognition to beat Rauner’s money. I propose Mike Ditka for Governor, with Adam Andrzejewski as Lt. Governor, to provide Ditka with solid, sharp support.
Anybody have any connections to Ditka?
John, I agree that Kirk and Rauner are liberal and that both should have lost their primaries. If Rauner wins, next March, that won’t help a Democrat win in Nov. Few conservatives (who are mad at Rauner’s actions about illegal aliens and abortion) will vote for a Democrat.
Phil, I don’t think you appreciate the severity of Rauner’s apostasy here.
We are not talking about minor changes. We are not talking about typical liberal action. We are talking about far left extremism. Rauner made Illinois a sanctuary state. Rauner signed a bill to make Illinois Taxpayers fund abortion on demand.
These are unforgivable offenses. They are absolutely contrary to Republican principles. They cannot be condoned.
They already tried Ditka when he had the chance to (and would have) stop Obama from ever getting elected.
Right, Chase. And while Ditka would have been a logical choice in 2004, he’s not a good choice today.
While a delightful character and a beloved Chicagoan, Mike Ditka is 77.
You don’t nominate a 77 year old for governor.
>>>>
I don’t think you appreciate the severity of Rauner’s apostasy here. We are not talking about minor changes. We are not talking about typical liberal action. We are talking about far left extremism. Rauner made Illinois a sanctuary state. Rauner signed a bill to make Illinois Taxpayers fund abortion on demand. These are unforgivable offenses. They are absolutely contrary to Republican principles.
<<<< Those of us who paying attention in 2014 and refused to vote for RAHMner and his Planned Parenthood loving wife are neither surprised nor shocked by his actions. He is behaving exactly as I thought he would (Kirk's record in the Senate likewise did not surprise me).
“surrender caucus” I love it. I got involved at the local level and worked with the Republican Party for a while. What I found is that the leadership of the Illinois Republican Party is absolutely terrified of backing a “real” conservative. They act like they cannot win an election without supporting a middle of the road candidate that goes liberal as soon as the election is over. In fact, they will let a state office go to a Democrat unopposed before they will support an unknown who is a real candidate.
I am one of the 95,000 who left IL in 2016 to never return. Good luck folks. You are gonna need it.
If not Rauner, then who?
Jeannie Ivers… Get real she don’t pack the gear.
William Kelly… Don’t got the dough, or support.
Who my I ask got 70mil and a name to run against
Rauner??? Let us know, Please.