The US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the GDP was above 4 percent was the third quarter of 2014.
In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised). The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2018.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Smoke and Mirrors!