2016 photo
By Nancy Thorner –
Biased polling to raise money, discourage the Republican vote and hide voter fraud has been a weapon for Democrats all my life. This year incentives to jigger polls have never been greater for a Democrat Establishment who fears their colleges, cities, and states will go broke without a federal bailout that depends on the Democrats at least holding the House. But fundamental polling problems will cause even the best like Trafalgar to underestimate Trump support.
There are about 12% more registered voters this year over 2016. Did they get a call? Pollsters still mostly call landlines. In 2016, about 50% had landlines, in 2020, that percentage is down to about 37%. Did the many millions that have switched to cell phones get a call? How many pollsters call only registered voters instead only those that voted the last 4 out of 5 elections? Polls have been wrong around the world because they get librarians, teachers and unemployed “activists” to respond, while plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc. (blue collar folks) refuse to talk to them.
A net of one sixth of people asked refuse to answer polls when they are voting for Trump, only 6% refuse to say Biden, 23% refuse to answer, Trump. That means only 77 % of Trump vote is there but 94 % of Biden vote is there for pollsters.
To get the true picture, Here are two polls released on Sunday, October 18, 2020 by Yougov:
Arizona: Biden 50, Trump 47
Biden: 50 / 94% = 53.2
Trump 47/ 77% = 61.1
Total = 114.2
Now adjust for Major Party Pct reported (97)
Biden: 53.2 x (97/114.2) = 45.2
Trump: 61.1 x (97/114.2) = 51.9
In Arizona, a Trump 3-point deficit turns into a 7-point win.
Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 46
Biden: 51 / 94% = 54.2
Trump: 45 / 77% = 58.4
Total= 112.7
Now adjust again vs Major (97)
Biden: 54.2 x (97/112.7) = 46.6
Trump: 58.4 X (97/112.7) = 50.3
In Wisconsin, a Trump 5-point deficit becomes a 3-point win.
This is the effect of Shy Trump Voter that even Trafalgar, which has Trump ahead in Arizona, doesn't fully get it. All this is backed up by hard evidence like party registration, primary turn out and the recent early voting turnout showing the Democrats not getting the minority vote they need by mail and are way behind the Republicans in standard, get out the vote organization.
History suggests that Trump, who won Arizona by 3.5% despite Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson bleeding off 4.75% of his vote, will get most of that third- party vote and win by 7. The real polling shows that there are more people who didn't vote, or voted for somebody else in 2016, now voting for Trump than the other way around for Biden. If Trump wins Arizona by 7, even McSally, who is running about 5 points behind Trump in the polling aggregate, will win. Only Cory Gardner and Susan Collins are really at risk, and even these Rinos could win given their unlikable, litmus test liberal opponents.
Michigan U.S. Senate, Trafalgar has James inching up and Peters inching down in every new poll they take: Peters 46.6, James 48. Trump had to turn away people at an airport rally on Saturday, 10/17/2020 which had 30,000 people in the only Western Michigan county that voted for Hillary. Any incumbent below 47% in any sort of decent poll this close to an election is almost sure to lose. At worst two losing Republicans (Collins and Gardner) match two losing Democrats (Jones and Peters). No, Romney and Murkowski alone won't be able to stop Trump appointments next year.
Covid
Besides polling more worthless than ever, there are the major differences with 2016. One is Covid, which is turning out to be a disaster for the Democrats despite every attempt of the most biased media in history to use it against Trump. We will see this once again in the coming Thursday in the presidential debate. “The reality is never in human history have we locked down a whole society. You quarantine the sick. You quarantine the vulnerable. You don’t shut down the whole country. What (Fauci) is suggesting is scientifically antithetical and unsubstantiated. I’m shocked that this man has any sort of podium anymore. He’s been wrong so many times.”
The article above lists 19 times Fauci has been wrong. But he did his job, which was to scam the public of taxes and borrowing power and further increase the power of a handful of companies and individuals who are making money on the Scamdemic.
The Scamdemic will disappear right after the election, but in the meantime the Democrat governors and mayors keep doubling down with another diktat more insane than the last one.
All it has done is gin up Trump's base, discourage Biden's base and turn off swing voters to the entire Democrat Party. Joe Biden may think Gretchen Whitmer is the best governor in the nation, but very few outside the Left think the same thing.
U.S. Postal Service
“An order by the U.S. Postal Service to pull its uniformed police officers off city streets has sparked a legal battle pitting it against a police union, when the agency is already under scrutiny for delivery delays in a presidential election that could hang on mail-in ballots. “The agency’s unilateral order ended daily patrols meant to prevent robberies of blue collection boxes and mail vehicles, and has left letter carriers without escorts on unsafe routes in some of the nation’s biggest cities, according to interviews with police officers and union representatives opposed to the change and a copy of the directive, titled “Postal Police Utilization,” reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mail thieves, in the past, often targeted mail for credit cards and checks. Now, the postal police officers said "the fear is that thieves also will get ballots, which could be ditched."
Just one of dozens of reports of mail-in balloting problems makes Trump supporters more inclined to vote in person, while discouraging the rest from not voting—they can't trust the mails but why risk getting Covid in person?
October Surprise
Another major difference from 2016 is this time the October surprise is with Trump, not against him. “…the Facebook executive currently blocking all of the negative evidence of Hunter and Joe Biden’s corrupt activity in Ukraine is the same person who was coordinating the corrupt activity between the Biden family payoffs and Ukraine.” All this has done is doom Facebook to oblivion and made the scandal even more visible to a nation where most people have the Internet and can get stories like these despite Facebook. Those who don't have an Internet will see these ads on Facebook.
What Fox did on the Hunter issue was very interesting. The network went to the people on the emails and contacted them. What was so stunning is that Fox reported that one, the guys on the emails said absolutely the meetings happened…. 'Hunter Biden's lawyer has come out with both phone calls and with emails saying, 'hey, I've got to get the hard drive back'. 'Bannon said, this is not some Russian intelligence operation; they admit it's their hard drive', continuing to prove the validity of the information found on the laptop. . . 'We have the emails from the Lawyer, if we need to release them, we'll release them… what they [Trump critics] don't want to talk about, is Donald J. Trump leads on people who are actually going to show up and vote on November 3, by 21 percent.'
Pretending this is all a Russian plot won't work, especially after the collapse of Russiagate last year.
Open Corruption
No major Presidential candidate in history was more unlikable or more openly corrupt as Hillary until Bidengate came along, but at least Hillary could campaign and function for a few hours after her Ldopa Parkinson's shot. And she wasn't stupid enough to promise a huge tax hike to chase away the people who may not like Trump personally but want to save their savings and jobs.
Bill Clinton's “middle class tax cut” was a lie but at least it wasn't an open promise to raise taxes trillions of dollars on people who are only “rich” compared to those in poverty.
“The full ratings are out of the town halls, and Trump ended up with higher ratings than Biden by about a million viewers…”
What pathetic liars inhabit the “mainstream” media, trying to use incomplete data to say Biden did better than Trump in the dueling Town Halls of last week. Just goes along with their polling that is trying to pretend Trump is well behind.
Unlikable Democrats
Biden and Democrat governors aren't the only unlikable Democrats in swing states. Democrat North Carolina Senate candidate Cal Cunningham’s alleged second mistress has been confirmed. Other than Shaheen of New Hampshire, is there any Democrat running statewide in a swing state that has credibility or likeability?
Democrats are a tired party of awful candidates and platform. They are on their last legs as a party short of a major depression that totally discredits their opposition.
