By John F. Di Leo -
In the summer of 2016, the voters of the United Kingdom decided to Brexit, and reclaim their rightful sovereignty.
Their Conservative Party prime minister disagreed with this decision (some conservative, huh?), so he stepped down, giving the party a chance to pick someone else to accomplish the people’s will.
They chose Theresa May, whose heart was certainly in the idea of being prime minister, but not in the effort to accomplish Brexit. She spent three years as a failed leader, her term in office doomed from the start, because she took a job without believing in its duties.
Now the British Conservative Party has tried again, selecting the American-born Boris Johnson, a journalist and historian as well as a statesman, as the UK’s next prime minister.
And the European Left couldn’t be happier.
That may sound unlikely, but the fact is, the European establishment may claim to be horrified at Boris Johnson’s electoral victory, but it’s exactly what they hoped for. Ever since Brexit passed, they have worked to make Brexit as painful as possible for the British, because they need to scare any other country out of doing the same. They expect Britain to fail, they want Britain to fail, and they are happy at the unexpected bonus of being able to blame Boris Johnson, a conservative, when the bad news really starts coming.
There’s nothing worse for a neighborhood gang than to see gang members quitting of their own volition, without suffering the consequences. No crime gang can afford for its members to go straight; the gang itself would dissolve.
The EU therefore talked Theresa May into agreeing to postpone any work on trade agreements – with any other country – until after Brexit was completed.
Now, this was an outrage – both for the EU to demand it, and for Ms. May to agree to it. But she agreed, nevertheless.
Membership in the EU eases international trade both within the EU and between the EU and numerous other countries – including Mexico, Japan, South Africa, Egypt, Israel, Chile, and South Korea. When the UK leaves the EU on October 31, it will instantly lose the reciprocal free trade it now enjoys, not only with the rest of the EU, but also with those dozens of other trading partners.
The UK has therefore had every right to spend these past three years negotiating with other trading partners to replace the block of partners it’s losing… but this foolish postponement promise has prevented such accomplishments from occurring.
The European establishment is predicting that the UK will suffer, but what they don’t admit is that they are intentionally working to cause that suffering; by hamstringing Britain’s ability to prepare for its future. It’s exactly like betting heavily on a horserace, then sneaking into the stable and injuring the rival horse before the race begins.
If Britain’s allies have both their own interests and the UK’s at heart, then hopefully, they have spent these past three years preparing for that future, despite Ms. May’s refusal to talk. So, hopefully and presumably, many good countries will be ready to present Free Trade Agreement drafts to Mr. Johnson as soon as he’s willing to direct his team to start working on them.
For Great Britain to negotiate FTAs with the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, that advantageous trade would go a long way in replacing the commerce they currently have with the rest of Europe. And there’s no reason to stop there; numerous other countries that currently have FTAs with Europe would be logical fits for Britain alone, as well. And if they all hit on November 1, the Brexit-related economic shelling will have been largely sidestepped.
So, yes, this difficulty is manageable. The next couple of years will be rough for England, but they don’t have to be nightmares.
The question is whether these other countries have been looking ahead to this day, and have prepared rough drafts to expedite the process once a new prime minister takes office.
And whether Mr. Johnson would open to breaking Ms. May’s foolish promise, and making the most of these remaining months.
These will be a difficult few years; the EU is counting on it. The EU knows that the more painful this breakup is for the UK, the more likely it is that the Conservative party will be destroyed by it.
But that is not a fait accompli. If we allies do the right thing, when November 1 comes along, the no-deal Brexit will usher in a whole replacement package of terrific trading partners. Together, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, plus a few other countries outside the commonwealth, would easily replace the EU partnership in which they currently participate.
This story has a lesson, and it’s a lesson as old as human history itself:
Joining the EU’s “fortress Europe idea” was a mistake in the first place, and whatever trouble Mr. Johnson has in his term in office, it truly won’t be his fault. It will be the fault of the fools, years ago, who voted to give up their nation’s sovereignty in exchange for the vague promise that “things would become easier.”
Mr. Johnson has the deck stacked against him, but there is an end in sight. These predictions are so dire that if he just keeps Britain’s head above water for a couple of years, and swiftly works to replace European trade with other lanes, Mr. Johnson will look like a conquering hero.
For nothing succeeds like success. When your own country’s economists predict that you’ll usher in a recession, and you bring prosperity instead, to the establishment’s utter shock, you become a rock star.
Just ask Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.
So, let’s pray for a successful term in office for Great Britain’s newly elected Prime Minister, and let’s pray too that the special relationship been our two countries is repaired with this election, and that our two nations proper together forever.
Copyright 2019 John F Di Leo
John F Di Leo is a Chicagoland based international trade trainer, actor and writer. His columns are regularly found in Illinois Review.
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