According to Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenblog, Illinois Democrats failed to recruit top-tier candidates in two competitive districts, which means the map Democrats drew after the last census will fall short of its desired intent once again.
It looks like Democrats have only one takeover opportunity in 2016: the 10th District. GOP Rep. Robert J. Dold looks likely to face off against former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider for the third consecutive cycle. Schneider won in 2012, Dold in 2014, each by about 2 percentage points. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call continue to rate the race as a Tossup.
In the 12th District, Democrats seem to have under-estimated Republican Congressman Mike Bost who had $650,000 in the bank on September 30, in a district that can be difficult for candidates to raise money. It looks like Democrats will wait for Bost to lose the race, instead of trying to help Democrat C.J. Baricevic win it.
In the 13th District, Macon County Board Member Mark Wicklund was the only Democrat to file this cycle, and he didn’t even announce his bid until about a month ago. Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Congressman Rodney Davis had $875,000 on hand at the end of September. However, former Democrat David Gill plans to run as an independent this time around, which would mean a likely win for Davis.
According to Gonzales, Illinois is an example of why Democrats are such long shots to win back the House next cycle. If they can’t maximize their gains in Illinois, they’ll have to make up for it elsewhere, likely in less friendly territory to net the 30 seats necessary for a majority.