By Mark Rhoads -
I was not familiar with the name Dr. Jill Stein until I saw her name included as the fourth choice on a poll of presidential candidates that included Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Libertarian candidate former Gov. Gary Johnson. Dr. Stein is the candidate of the Green Party.
On June 10 a Fox News poll of only three candidates showed Clinton with 39, Trump 36, and Johnson 12 percent. Since Johnson is so little known, it was reasonable to speculate that his number was mostly due to a rejection of the other two major party candidates But on June 11, a Survey USA poll showed Clinton at 39, Trump 36, Johnson 6, and Jill Stein at 4 percent. So the inclusion of Dr. Jill Stein in a poll results in a lower number for Johnson because it splits up the protest vote.
Does it matter if the polls survey 3 or 4 candidates?
Yes, because to be invited to participate in one of the major fall debates after Labor Day, a candidate must be shown above 15 percent in several polls under the rules for inclusion set up by the Commission on Presidential Debates.
But poll standing is not the only criterion for inclusion in a debate. A candidate must also be listed on enough state ballots to have a mathematical chance of reaching 270 Electoral Votes. Currently the Libertarian Party will appear on the ballot in all 50 states but the Green Party only has ballot access in about 22 states and is still working on more. But the Green Party admits it is not likely to reach all 50 under current rules and would be forced to litigate to get access in all states. While the Greens are on the ballot in many large states such as California, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the combination of all states that list the Green Party are still not likely to reach 270 Electoral Votes. But if the Commission on Presidential Debates relies only on four-way polls for inclusion in debates after Labor Day, it might have the effect of excluding Gary Johnson by blocking him from showing more than 15 percent in polls. This is what the two major parties want even though they claim they are not worried about Johnson.
