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HomeIllinois NewsPritzker leads by 22 points over Rauner

Pritzker leads by 22 points over Rauner

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URBANA – The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute says Illinois registered voters are overwhelmingly leaning toward Democrat challenger JB Pritzker and ousting GOP Governor Bruce Rauner in November.

When voters were asked, “If the election were held today…who would you vote for?” 49% chose Pritzker; 27 percent chose Rauner with 4 percent who selected the conservative Sam McCann and 4 percent who selected Libertarian Kash Jackson. The remaining 17 percent were undecided.

Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent.

Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

The poll taken the last week of September has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points.

Conservative voters chose more enthusiastic compared to less enthusiastic by 61 percent to 24 percent while liberal voters chose more enthusiastic by 73 percent to 14 percent.

“Illinois Democrats are displaying greater enthusiasm about this midterm election than are Republicans or Independents. The so-called “enthusiasm gap” is comparable to what we have been seeing across the country for some time” said Simon Institute Visiting Professor Charlie Leonard. “If it holds up and is reflected in comparable turnout numbers, it will be a major advantage for the Democrats.

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24 COMMENTS

  1. I believe Rauner could narrow this gap if he could figure a way to bring the republican base back which supported Jeannie Ives. He might want to revamp his campaign team, one idea, calling Ives supporters “idiots” is NOT a winning strategy. More then one Rauner supporter has said this to me.
    I suggest he attends a city club of Chicago lunch, he can be my guest. There is always lots of media there.
    Pritzker has this new issue with the toilets and a huge property tax reduction on his house. All very suspicious, Tribune is reporting on it.
    I’ll be watching the next debate.

  2. The correct strategy for Conservatives and Repblicans is to insure Rauner’s defeat.
    The reality is simple, Rauner has demonstrated time and again he cannot cope with Madigan – period. That boys and girls means the game is over. Rauner simply does not have the skills, he never did. You need to accept that reality.
    The next reality to deal with is the pension and healthcare crisis of the public sector employees. There is no way out. the game is over when the next recession hits. Given we are in the longest economic expansion in modern history the easy money has already been made in the stock market and bonds have broken out of their massive bull run, the Trump economy is awesome but eventually it too will succumb and where will IL be, having never done proper pension reform and without having built reserves?
    A fiscal crash is in Illinois future and it is important that the crash happen when the democrats control the Springfield mansion. IL is doomed no matter how you look at it, let is death toll be in democratic hands.
    And then there is a matter of pride. Rauner has repeatedly stabbed conservatives in the back and shown disdain for republican principles and the very rule of law. Any Republican who votes for Rauner is the equivalent of a cuckold, a weak, spineless cuckold. Think about that.

  3. Rauner/Pritzker are the same. Do not waste your vote on Rauner or Pritzker. Vote for the Man. Sam McCann. He supports the future. Rauner and Pritzker want to kill babies. The unborn are our future.
    Moses lived. Yet our modern day killers also want to kill Moses.
    Mark better spend your time advising Sam McCann the Man.
    You need a McCann yard sign phone 847 471 8210
    email [email protected]
    Love Saves Lives
    Carl Lambrecht

  4. Spit on conservatives for four years and then beg them to vote for him one month before the election? Have you taken leave of your senses?
    I don’t think there’s nowhere to go but up. If McCann would get off his couch and Jackson were to get any traction he could fall even further.

  5. Oh, please Mark. I know you are well intentioned. But your recommendations RE RINO Rauner are akin to telling the White Star Line crew on the Titanic –
    “Even though we have only enough lifeboats to accommodate one-fifth of the passengers – can’t you please make sure that all the boats are all filled to capacity?”
    “And can’t you give water wings to all the little children who can’t get on the lifeboats?”
    “And please tell the passengers to not dive off the ship near the propellers – where they might get ground up?”
    Anyone who thinks that RINO Rauner, might conceivably win – is in Fantasyland.”
    Time to move to safe, solid, secure dry ground in conservative, Republican Indiana.
    And let those left behind on the sinking ship, pay for this mess.

  6. I just thought of something. Rauner really is a Democrat all the way through. He is nasty, nasty campaigner, I have never heard a Republican as viscous as Rauner. Trump is a counter puncher, not Rauner he attacks from the shadows, he attacks head on and always takes the low road. He really is a reprehensible human being.

  7. The fewer votes Rauner gets the better. A very poor showing for Rauner, and that appears likely, will wake up more GOP officials to the problem – the alienation of the Conservative base. You can no longer ignore Conservatives and assume they will vote for any Republicrat they put on the ticket. I will vote for McCann. Hopefully he will get over 10% of the vote and Rauner will get under 30%. Enough is enough.

  8. McCann is saturating the airwaves right now. Ironically, I haven’t seen any gubernatorial ads in a while. It looks like Bruce won’t throw away any more of his money, neither will the national GOP and JB won’t throw away any of his money. The next month will be real interesting.

  9. A very credible source told me he has evidence that Rauner voted Democrat in the Primaries when his given address was in Lake County.
    He then leased a residence in Cook County and changed his voting habit to “Republican” for a few years, preparing to run as GOP candidate for Governor.
    So I think you have him figured out pretty well.

  10. Pritzker is at 49%. Two more percent and it doesn’t matter to him what Rauner does.
    More likely Rauner starts doing a kamikaze campaign directed at the GOP base to depress their turnout even more.
    I for one am only voting for Congress and the rest of the Illinois GOP can go scratch.

  11. What difference does it make, King Mike Madigan runs the state. He has absolute power over what proposed bills make it to the floor for a vote… and a tremendous amount of leverage over how the house democrats vote. If 75% of the house wanted to vote on a proposed bill, Madigan can still arbitrarily put his iron boot on it and the proposed bill will never see the floor of the house. The democrats give him that power when they vote on house rules, unconstitutional rules. One person was never suppose to have that much power in a constitutional republic…. the reason for the separation of powers. All three branches of state govt have been corrupted in Illinois. The smart thing to do is leave the state.

  12. I don’t know if ANYTHING can “wake up” the leadership of the current Illinois Republican Party.
    Just look at some of the stooges that have been Chairman of it in the past thirty years, and you will see why it has declined in stature and effectiveness.
    Playing games with the Democrats instead of taking a hard line hasn’t worked, and being satisfied with the crumbs Madigan sweeps off the table, instead of grabbing for the whole cake, is a poor way to run what is supposed to be the “opposition” political party.

  13. Your county isn’t far right, it’s Democrat and hasn’t voted for a Republican President or candidate in almost 15 years. That’s Rauner’s problem. His perfectly cultivated “moderate” but actually liberal voters won’t actually vote for him even though he compliantly did everything that they would ever want from a Republican. Bruce could win downstate by a landslide, but not win. Don’t blame McCann or Kash, either. Add those three numbers up and Bruce still loses by a landslide. It’s your county and the counties next door.

  14. How can that be? The far right isn’t voting for The Fat Slob. The far right would make up the 8% voting third party or the 17% undecided.
    Pritzker is at 49%. This is Democrats and independents Rauner has turned off. The far right couldn’t possibly put Pritzker at 49%.
    Think before you type.