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What’s the story with Illinois’ population estimates


I just read your article on Illinois's population from July 20 to July 21 of 113,000.
I am still very confused as to how the Census arrived at an Illinois population of 12,812,508.
The most recent estimate prior to the Census was 12,587,530.
Also I saw something to the affect that the Census adjusts the Raw Census totals with some type of formula and as a result the raw count for Illinois was by some factor to arrive at the 12,812,508, so now that population is going away.
Do you have any thoughts as to how the most recent estimate of 12,587,530 rose to 12,812.508 for the reported Census total?
llinois' original estimated 2020 population of 12,587,530 was based on the Census Bureau's “Vintage Population Estimates” survey. The estimate is run each year and is separate from the once-a-decade Census count.
Then the 2020 Decennial Census came along and it found the state population was 12,812,508, about 225,000 higher than the original estimate. That was a big surprise because Illinois' population loss for the decade was expected to be more than 200,000. After the decennial count, the loss for ended up being just 18,000. 
The jump in the population number, some say, is likely due to the state’s $50 million spend to increase survey participation in the 2020 decennial survey. That may have led to a potentially more aggressive count of non-citizens. Illinois was the third-largest per-capita spender on census spending.

From Politico Illinois:

It may be proof that the heavy lifting to get residents counted last year actually worked. “We built a coordinated, robust, statewide effort to reach millions of Illinois residents, particularly those in hard-to-count communities, and it proved to be tremendously successful,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in a statement to Playbook. He pointed to a “boots on the ground” effort that included 400 organizations, coordinated by 31 “regional intermediaries.” It was all fueled by $47.8 million in funding.

The extra spending to increase survey participation was widely criticized across the country, many saying it favored blue states over red. 
For more details on Illinois' population numbers, see Wirepoint's other work:


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